in agricultural export sales American farmers have lost since Trump administration tariffs triggered a trade war in March 2025. That already exceeds the losses of the entire 2018–19 trade war, and the total is still growing.
This page summarizes what agricultural economists, federal courts, and USDA data show about tariffs' effect on farmers. It contains no estimates of our own. Every figure below links to its source.
Oct. 1: The American Farm Bureau reported U.S. farm diesel at $5.61 a gallon in September, up $2.60 from a year earlier. It estimates the increase adds $57.59 per acre to the harvest fuel bill for apples.
American Farm Bureau Federation, Oct. 1, 2026 · Fruit Growers News
Oct. 5: The U.S. Agriculture Secretary said the president was likely to act on farmers that day. The Farm Bureau asked the administration to suspend the 24.4-cent federal diesel tax for farm transport. A proposed $11 billion in farm aid may not arrive until spring 2027.
Sept. 25: An Albany-area farm cidery says U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum pushed its canning costs up 30 percent.
A note on attribution: the tariffs on this page are Trump administration trade actions, issued as orders and proclamations under trade law. They are separate from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a tax-and-spending law, and rest on different legal authorities. Each is covered separately below.
Early voting runs Oct. 24 to Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 3.
What the agricultural economists found
These figures come from an academic trade-impact study, federal bankruptcy court records, and USDA's own farm-economy projections. None are advocacy estimates, and projections for the current year are labeled as such.
Lost in U.S. agricultural export sales to China's retaliatory tariffs, March 2025–February 2026. The total is 41% larger than the losses in the entire 2018–19 trade war.
North Dakota State University Trade Monitor analysis. View source →
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies were filed nationwide in 2025. That is up 46% from 2024 and a six-year high.
U.S. Courts filing data, compiled by American Farm Bureau Federation Market Intel. View source →
Record total U.S. farm debt projected for 2026, up 5.2% year over year.
USDA farm sector financial forecast, 2026. View source →
Record farm-economy interest expenses are projected for 2026, reflecting the cost of carrying that debt.
USDA farm sector financial forecast, 2026. View source →
Where the $14.9B in export losses hit hardest
A note on precision: the $14.9B figure covers China's retaliatory tariffs specifically, over the twelve months NDSU studied. It does not include losses from Canada's separate, newer counter-tariffs (below), or the added cost of tariffs on farm inputs like fertilizer. The real total is larger than the headline number on this page. We include only figures we can source.
What about the farmer assistance payments?
There is federal aid on the table. It does not close the gap.
The administration announced a $12 billion farmer assistance package.
Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced the package to help offset tariff-related losses, funded in part by tariff revenue collected on agricultural imports.
Source: Farm Progress, citing USDA announcement.
Tariff revenue collected so far: $958 million. Farmer losses: far more.
Through October, agriculture input tariffs had generated $958 million in revenue. According to the NDSU Trade Monitor analysis, that is a fraction of what farmers and input suppliers paid in higher costs. A coalition of 56 agriculture organizations stated that even the $12 billion package "does not come close to offsetting agricultural losses."
Sources: Farm Progress · North Dakota State University Trade Monitor.
Bottom line: there is real federal aid moving to farmers. It is smaller than the losses it's meant to offset, by the government's and researchers' own numbers.
Is this the One Big Beautiful Bill?
No. The two are different policies, and both are live issues this year.
Tariffs are Trump administration trade actions. OBBBA is a tax-and-spending law.
The tariffs on this page came from presidential orders and proclamations under trade statutes. OBBBA was not involved. The Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that the administration's broadest tariff authority (under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act) was unlawful; the administration replaced those tariffs with new ones under different trade laws days later, and the trade war has continued and escalated since. None of that ran through OBBBA.
Sources: Perkins Coie legal analysis · Honigman trade alert.
OBBBA has its own farm provisions. Its trade-support funding is a fraction of what tariffs have cost.
OBBBA does contain real agricultural policy: extended commodity support programs, higher crop insurance premium subsidies, expanded disaster assistance, and a new Agricultural Trade Promotion and Facilitation Program funded at $285 million per year starting in 2027. That $285 million is dedicated to helping farmers find new export markets. By comparison, tariffs have already cost them $14.9 billion in export sales.
Source: American Farm Bureau Federation, "One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Final Agricultural Provisions."
Bottom line: OBBBA did not cause the tariffs and does not fix them. They are separate policies, and this page treats them separately.
New York farms are exposed on three fronts
The New York Farm Bureau (the state's farm advocacy organization, not a political group) has flagged three pressure points for New York growers.
Fertilizer
Nearly all potash (a key fertilizer ingredient) is imported from Canada. Tariffs raise input costs for New York farms already operating on razor-thin margins.
New York Farm Bureau statement.
Dairy
U.S. dairy farmers exported nearly $9 billion globally in 2024. Its largest destinations are Canada, Mexico and China, the same countries now imposing retaliatory tariffs.
New York Farm Bureau statement.
Apples
New York is the country's second-largest apple producer. If Washington State loses its own export markets, its apples could flood into New York "at a fraction of the normal cost," undercutting local growers.
New York Farm Bureau statement.
What this looks like on the ground
Of farms in NY-19 are family farms. They are directly exposed to rising input costs and falling export demand.
Of North Country / NY-19 residents name jobs and the economy their top issue, with fertilizer costs, equipment costs, and falling milk exports cited directly.
New York's national rank in apple production. The Farm Bureau warns this market could be undercut by displaced Washington State fruit.
What New York State did for farms
New York acted on tariffs and farm costs. Each one is explained below for a farm.
In direct relief for farms hit by tariffs: $1,000 to $25,000 per farm, with its own track for dairy.
NYS Agriculture and Markets, June 29, 2026. View source →
In the state budget for Nourish New York, which buys New York farm products for food banks.
NYS Agriculture and Markets, June 2026. View source →
Refundable Investment Tax Credit for farmers, now extended to 2033.
Farm Credit East, June 4, 2026. View source →
Joined a lawsuit led by New York against the emergency tariffs. On Feb. 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled those tariffs unlawful.
NY Attorney General, Feb. 20, 2026. View source →
Early voting runs Oct. 24 to Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 3.
How this page was fact-checked
Every figure above links directly to its source. The full list follows.
Page last fact-checked: August 31, 2026. News and policy sections updated Oct. 15, 2026. Figures reflect the best available research and federal data as of this date and are subject to revision as new data is published.
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